FPL GW33 Captain Picks: Welbeck, Haaland & the DGW33 Armband Guide
Six teams play twice in GW33. Welbeck leads the EP charts at 7.5 and plays FDR:2 and FDR:3. Haaland hasn't scored in six gameweeks. Semenyo offers minimal Man City differential. Here's who's getting the armband — ranked with full verified data.
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View Campaign OfferFPL GW33 Captain Picks: Welbeck, Haaland & the DGW33 Armband Guide
Deadline: Saturday 18 April at 10:00 BST
Six DGW33 teams, twelve extra scoring opportunities, and one armband decision that could define your rank trajectory for the run-in. Get it right and you're climbing. Get it wrong — or just go safe on form alone — and you're handing ground to the managers who read the fixtures properly.
The headline acts are already getting buzz: Haaland is getting the captain from 55% of managers by sheer inertia, Welbeck is the data-backed choice, and Semenyo is floating around as the "Man City mid differential." Let's pull this apart properly with the numbers in front of us.
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GW33 Double Gameweek Fixture Snapshot
| Team | Fixture 1 | FDR | KO (BST) | Fixture 2 | FDR | KO (BST) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | A @ Spurs | 2 | Sat 18, 16:30 | H vs Chelsea | 3 | Tue 21, 19:00 |
| Leeds | H vs Wolves | 2 | Sat 18, 14:00 | A @ Bournemouth | 3 | Wed 22, 19:00 |
| Bournemouth | A @ Newcastle | 3 | — | H vs Leeds | 2 | — |
| Man City | H vs Arsenal | 4 | Sun 19, 15:30 | A @ Burnley | 2 | Wed 22, 19:00 |
| Chelsea | H vs Man Utd | 3 | Sat 18, 19:00 | A @ Brighton | 4 | Tue 21, 19:00 |
| Burnley | A @ Nott'm Forest | 3 | — | H vs Man City | 4 | — |
The cap landscape in a sentence: Brighton's double is FDR:2+3. Man City's double is FDR:4+2. Chelsea's is FDR:3+4. Brighton is where the fixtures are. Man City need to get past Arsenal first.
1. Danny Welbeck — Brighton (FWD, £6.2m) 🏆 The Captain
EP: 7.5 | Form: 7.0 | TSB: 5.4%
There is no captain pick in GW33 with a better combination of expected points, fixture quality, and differential value than Danny Welbeck. The data says it unambiguously.
His EP of 7.5 is the highest of any DGW33 forward. His form score of 7.0 is among the best attacking options in the game. And he's doing it with underlying stats that confirm none of it is noise — 12 goals in 1,817 minutes, averaging a strike every 151 minutes, backed by an xGI of 11.56 that shows he earns every return he gets.
The fixtures complete the picture. Brighton face Spurs away (FDR:2) on Saturday, then Chelsea at home (FDR:3) on Tuesday. Spurs away has been open for business all season. Chelsea have been leaking goals. Both fixtures have a genuine ceiling for a striker in form — and Welbeck is as in-form as he's been all year.
Key stats:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| EP Next GW | 7.5 (DGW33 best) |
| Form | 7.0 |
| TSB | 5.4% |
| Goals | 12 (1,817 min / 20 sts) |
| xGI | 11.56 |
| GW33 Fixture | A@Spurs (FDR:2) |
| GW33 Fixture | H vs Chelsea (FDR:3) |
What makes Welbeck the armband choice is that he wins on every metric simultaneously: EP, form, fixtures and ownership. At 5.4%, a 20+ point haul is a top-100k swing. Your 55% Haaland captain won't move you anywhere if he blanks again.
Verdict: The captain. Put the band on, don't second-guess it.
Welbeck's full stats, goal map, and Brighton fixture run
2. Igor Thiago — Brentford (FWD, £7.3m) 🎯 The Best Single-GW Forward
EP: 7.7 | Form: 7.7 | TSB: 34.2%
This is the stat that catches the eye: Igor Thiago's EP of 7.7 for a single game is actually higher than Welbeck's 7.5 double — the FPL algorithm rates him as the highest EP forward in GW33 on a per-appearance basis. He delivered 13 points in GW32 (two goals vs Everton), cementing his position as one of the most dangerous forwards in the game right now.
But context matters. Thiago plays for Brentford — and Brentford have just one fixture in GW33: home against Fulham (FDR:3). There is no double. A single game, a home fixture, a moderate-difficulty opponent.
That still makes him a strong candidate. His form is peaking, his minutes are nailed, and Fulham at Griffin Park is a winnable game for Brentford's attack. At 34.2% TSB, a Thiago return delivers meaningful rank advantage over template Haaland owners. But without the DGW safety net, you are betting everything on one game in a week where Brighton have two.
Captain him if you own him and have no Brighton access. He is the best single-game forward in GW33. Just accept the trade-off.
Verdict: Best non-DGW forward option. Strong single-game cap. If you own him and cannot access Brighton, he earns the armband.
Igor Thiago's full stats, xGI, and Brentford fixture run
3. Erling Haaland — Man City (FWD, £14.4m) ⚠️ The Template Problem
EP: 2.0 | Form: 2.0 | TSB: 55.4%
Here's the uncomfortable truth for the 55% of managers who own Haaland: his EP for DGW33 is 2.0. That's the same as João Pedro. It's the same rating he's been given for most of the past six gameweeks — and he hasn't scored in any of them.
Haaland's last goal came in Gameweek 26 (February 11). That's six gameweeks without a goal — his longest barren run since joining Man City. The form stat (2.0) reflects it. The EP reflects it. The Man City schedule reflects it too: their first GW33 fixture is Arsenal at home (FDR:4), the best defence in the division.
The Burnley second leg (FDR:2, away) is the genuine return opportunity — if Man City rotate the Arsenal game, Haaland might not even play it. The framework here is: own him, hold the captain if you must, but don't go in expecting 15+ points. The armband on Haaland in GW33 is a conservative move on paper but it's structurally risky given the Arsenal hurdle and his current form cliff.
Season context:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| EP Next GW | 2.0 |
| Form | 2.0 (season low) |
| TSB | 55.4% |
| Goals (season) | 22 |
| Assists | 7 |
| PPG | 6.8 (seasonal average) |
| Total Pts | 197 |
| Last Goal | GW26 — six blanks since |
| GW33 Fixtures | H vs Arsenal (FDR:4) → A@Burnley (FDR:2) |
Verdict: Hold. Captain him if you own him and want rank neutrality. But the data does not support this as the best armband choice in a DGW where Brighton exist.
Haaland's fixture-by-fixture record and upcoming schedule
4. Antoine Semenyo — Man City (MID, £8.2m) 🔀 The Man City Mid
EP: ~4.0 | Form: ~4.5 | TSB: ~54%
Semenyo gets floated as the "Haaland differential" for his Man City double — but the maths need stress-testing. With an ownership of approximately 54%, captaining Semenyo instead of Haaland delivers almost zero differential gain against the field. Both are massively held. You're not escaping the Haaland problem by switching the armband to his teammate.
Where Semenyo makes sense as a captain call is if you don't own Haaland at all — in which case, Man City's DGW is still two games, and Semenyo (15G + 6A across 31 appearances this season) provides a strong attacking route through the double. His best returns came in identical fashion to this double: against lower-tier opposition in the second leg (FDR:2). He scored in GW28 and GW29 back-to-back. He's been quiet since, but those fixtures tell you he turns up when the conditions are right.
The honest verdict: Semenyo is a better hold than a captain change. His fixtures are the same tough-then-soft as Haaland's, his TSB makes him non-differential, and his form is similar. If you own him, he's part of your Man City DGW exposure — that exposure is worth having. But the armband goes to Brighton if you're thinking rationally.
Season snapshot:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Price | £8.2m |
| TSB | ~54% |
| Goals (season) | 15 |
| Assists | 6 |
| Total Pts | ~176 |
| GW33 Fixtures | H vs Arsenal (FDR:4) → A@Burnley (FDR:2) |
| Last Goal | GW29 (March 4) |
Verdict: Hold captain. Valid Man City DGW asset but not a genuine differential armband option at 54% ownership. Works if you're constructing a Man City double and need a route in.
Semenyo's full game-by-game stats and Man City fixture data
5. Rayan Cherki — Man City (MID, £6.3m) ✨ The Assist Machine
EP: ~4.0 | Form: 4.0 | TSB: ~7%
Cherki put himself firmly on the GW33 radar with a 10-point GW32 — two assists in Man City's 3-0 demolition at Chelsea. He is now up to 3 goals and 11 assists this season, and with Man City's double header in GW33 he offers a creative differential at just £6.3m and around 7% TSB.
The case for Cherki: he is Man City's most creative outlet by a distance, his assist-heavy profile means he does not need to score to return points, and at ~7% TSB he delivers genuine differential exposure within Man City's DGW. The Burnley second leg (FDR:2 away) is built for him.
The honest caveat: his minutes have been inconsistent — he splits starts and sub appearances across Man City's rotation. And Man City's first GW33 fixture is Arsenal at home (FDR:4) — the same tough opener that limits enthusiasm around Haaland and Semenyo. Cherki's GW32 form suggests he is pushing into the starting eleven more regularly, but rotation risk in a big game is real.
He is not the captain recommendation — that still goes to Welbeck. But if you own Cherki and want Man City DGW exposure at a low ownership, he is a legitimate hold with real ceiling in the Burnley game.
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Price | £6.3m |
| TSB | ~7% |
| Goals + Assists | 3G + 11A (season) |
| GW32 | 10 pts (2A, Man City 3-0 win at Chelsea) |
| GW33 Fixtures | H vs Arsenal (FDR:4) → A@Burnley (FDR:2) |
Verdict: Hold if you own him. Don't captain over Welbeck. GW32 form and Man City's double make him worth keeping for the two bites.
Cherki's full stats and Man City fixture run
6. Bruno Fernandes — Man Utd (MID, £10.3m) 🛡️ The Safe Single-GW Option
EP: 7.7 | Form: 7.7 | TSB: 45.4%
Bruno Fernandes has an EP of 7.7 — the joint highest attacking return in the game heading into GW33 — but he only plays once. Man Utd's sole fixture is away at Chelsea (FDR:4).
That's a tricky fixture. Chelsea are home, Man Utd are on the road, and FDR:4 is a proper test. Bruno's form at 7.7 is real — 25 goal involvements (8G+17A), xGI of 19.35, 189 total points — and he's the set-piece and penalty taker who can produce from nothing on any given week. But in a DGW where Brighton have two accessible fixtures and he's away in a tough game, Bruno as captain is a rank-neutral move at best.
Use him as a captain fallback: if you own him and the Brighton double doesn't appeal to you temperamentally, Bruno is the "safe" non-DGW call. But accept you're not gaining ground on Haaland owners (45% TSB is still template territory in most high-performing squads).
Verdict: Legit safe cap if you need peace of mind. Won't move you in the table either direction on average, but the ceiling is there — he could explode against Chelsea. Not the optimal pick in a DGW week though.
7. Jérémy Doku — Man City (MID, £6.4m) ⚡ The Bold Rank Chaser
EP: 9.5 | Form: 4.5 | TSB: 2.4%
The highest EP in the game heading into GW33. 9.5 expected points — ahead of Welbeck, ahead of Thiago, ahead of Bruno. At 2.4% TSB, the ceiling on a Doku captaincy is enormous. If Man City click against Arsenal and then put Burnley to the sword, a double-figure haul from Doku could be a 50k+ rank climb overnight.
The caveats are real: Doku's form (4.5) is inconsistent relative to his EP number, he shares Man City's difficult Arsenal opener, and his minutes aren't as locked in as some. But the FPL algorithm is clearly projecting him as Man City's prime creative outlet over their two fixtures — and that EP figure doesn't lie about ceiling.
This is the captain pick for those who are mid-table and need a rocket. It's high-risk, high-reward, and almost nobody else is doing it.
Verdict: Rank chaser's captain. Back it only if you need to move, own him, and accept the variance. Not the average-week play — but the big-swing option when you need ground.
8. João Pedro — Chelsea (FWD, £7.8m) ❌ Avoid
EP: 2.0 | Form: 2.0 | TSB: 50.3%
Chelsea have a double, João Pedro is their main man, but neither his EP nor his form says captain. The numbers are as flat as they get — 2.0 EP, 2.0 Form — for a player who scored 14 goals and 9 assists in the first two-thirds of the season. The form cliff is real and it's been going on for weeks now.
His DGW33 fixtures don't help: Man Utd at home is a moderate FDR:3 opener, but the second leg is away at Brighton (FDR:4) — the opposition with the best DGW on the fixture list. Chelsea could easily get a result at Brighton, but it's a tough ask for a frontman already in a confidence rut.
The temptation is the double. Resist it for the armband. If you own JP, hold and hope for a return, but the captain band does not belong anywhere near a player with EP 2.0 in a week where Welbeck and Thiago exist.
Verdict: Hold. Avoid the captain. Do not spend a transfer on this for GW33.
GW33 Captain Comparison Table
| Player | Club | Pos | Price | TSB | EP | Form | GW33 Fixtures | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Welbeck | Brighton | FWD | £6.2m | 5.4% | 7.5 | 7.0 | A@Spurs (FDR:2) + H vs Chelsea (FDR:3) | ⭐ Captain |
| Igor Thiago | Brentford | FWD | £7.3m | 34.2% | 7.7 | 7.7 | H vs Fulham (FDR:3) — single game | 🎯 Single-GW Best |
| Bruno | Man Utd | MID | £10.3m | 45.4% | 7.7 | 7.7 | A@Chelsea (FDR:4) — single game | 🛡️ Safe (1 game) |
| Doku | Man City | MID | £6.4m | 2.4% | 9.5 | 4.5 | H vs Arsenal (FDR:4) + A@Burnley (FDR:2) | ⚡ Bold Swing |
| Haaland | Man City | FWD | £14.4m | 55.4% | 2.0 | 2.0 | H vs Arsenal (FDR:4) + A@Burnley (FDR:2) | ⚠️ Template Hold |
| Semenyo | Man City | MID | £8.2m | ~54% | ~4.0 | ~4.5 | H vs Arsenal (FDR:4) + A@Burnley (FDR:2) | 🔀 Hold (not diff) |
| Cherki | Man City | MID | £6.3m | ~7% | ~4.0 | 4.0 | H vs Arsenal (FDR:4) + A@Burnley (FDR:2) | ✨ Hold/DGW Diff |
| João Pedro | Chelsea | FWD | £7.8m | 50.3% | 2.0 | 2.0 | H vs Man Utd (FDR:3) + A@Brighton (FDR:4) | ❌ Avoid |
The Quick Guide
Own Welbeck → Captain him. It's not close.
Own Igor Thiago but not Welbeck → Solid single-game cap. EP 7.7 is the highest of any non-DGW forward in GW33. Brentford H vs Fulham (FDR:3). Not leaping over Brighton, but the best call if you own him.
Own Haaland but none of the above → Hold the captain with eyes open. The double gives two bites, but Arsenal bite back. Accept the variance.
Chasing rank and own Doku → Bold Doku captain maximises upside. EP 9.5 means the ceiling is outrageous. It's the high-risk play but at 2.4% TSB, the differential gain if it lands is enormous.
Need a non-DGW safe option → Bruno Fernandes is a 7.7 EP single game away at Chelsea. Moderate floor, genuine ceiling, but not rank-moving in both directions like a DGW cap.
Own Semenyo → He's a hold, not a captain change. Same Arsenal hurdle as Haaland, ~54% TSB means no real differential value in the armband.
Own Cherki → Hold through Man City's double. 3G+11A this season and 10 pts in GW32 (2A, Man City 3-0 at Chelsea) show the creative ceiling. Arsenal first is the hurdle; Burnley away is the opportunity. Don't captain over Welbeck, but he earns his keep in the DGW at ~7% TSB.
Thinking of captaining João Pedro → Don't.
Plan Your GW33 Captaincy
Use FPL Lab's tools to verify your pick, check team news, and finalise your squad before Saturday's 10:00 BST deadline:
- Transfer Planner — score your squad, test captain scenarios, and get smart transfer suggestions
- Fixtures Tool — visualise FDR ratings across DGW33 and beyond
- Player Database — check real-time EP, form, and minutes for every GW33 captain option
- Live Points Tracker — track every captain return as it happens across the double
GW33 Deadline: Saturday 18 April at 10:00 BST. Double down on Brighton — the fixtures don't lie.
Affiliate disclosure: This article contains one affiliate link to Team Bull Trading. FPL Lab only features products we believe add genuine value. All FPL player stats are sourced directly from the FPL API via FPL Lab's live data tools.