Best FPL Replacements for Erling Haaland (GW27-33)
Erling Haaland is a doubt and with 68.3% ownership, every FPL manager needs a plan. Here are the best striker and forward replacements across every budget bracket to cover the next 5-7 gameweeks - backed by live FPL API data.
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View Campaign OfferBest FPL Replacements for Erling Haaland (GW27-33)
It's the news 68% of FPL managers were dreading.
Erling Haaland is listed as a doubt for GW27 and Guardiola has confirmed he is "not fully fit." At £14.9m and the highest ownership in the game, you need a plan — and you need it before the Friday 21 February, 13:30 GMT deadline.
The question isn't "will he be back?" It's "which forward gives me the best 5-7 gameweek return while he's out?"
This guide covers strictly strikers and forwards — the best FWD slot replacements ranked by form, fixture run, and value across every price point.
The Haaland Problem: What You're Replacing
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £14.9m |
| Ownership | 68.3% |
| GW27 Status | Doubt — 75% chance |
| Season Goals | 22 |
| xG | 20.35 |
| PPG | 7.2 |
| EP Next | 4.5 |
| GW27 Fixture | NEW (H) — FDR 3 |
| GW28 Fixture | LEE (A) — FDR 3 |
Even if he plays, Haaland is clearly not 100% and his GW27 fixture is only FDR 3. The forwards listed below offer better immediate prospects — and better schedules over the next 5-7 gameweeks.
GW27-33 Fixture Map for Key Forward Teams
This is the window you're planning around. Here's the full picture:
| Team | GW27 | GW28 | GW29 | GW30 | GW31 | GW32 | GW33 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | BUR (H) 1 | ARS (A) 5 | AVL (A) 4 | NEW (A) 4 | EVE (H) 3 | MCI (H) 4 | MUN (A) 4 |
| Liverpool | NFO (A) 3 | WHU (H) 2 | WOL (A) 2 | TOT (A) 4 | BHA (A) 3 | FUL (A) 4 | EVE (H) 3 |
| Aston Villa | LEE (H) 2 | WOL (A) 2 | CHE (A) 4 | MUN (A) 4 | WHU (H) 4 | NFO (A) 3 | SUN (A) 4 |
| Bournemouth | WHU (A) 2 | SUN (H) 2 | BRE (H) 3 | BUR (H) 2 | — | ARS (A) 5 | NEW (A) 4 |
| Crystal Palace | WOL (H) 2 | MUN (A) 4 | TOT (H) 3 | LEE (H) 2 | — | NEW (A) 3 | WHU (H) 3 |
| Fulham | SUN (A) 4 | TOT (A) 3 | WHU (H) 2 | NFO (H) 2 | BUR (H) 1 | LIV (H) 2 | BRE (A) 4 |
| West Ham | BOU (H) 2 | LIV (H) 2 | FUL (A) 3 | MCI (A) 2 | AVL (A) 4 | WOL (H) 2 | CRY (A) 3 |
FDR in bold = 1 or 2 (favourable). Source: FPL fixtures API, 18 Feb 2026.
Premium Forwards (£8m+)
1. João Pedro — Chelsea, FWD | £7.7m
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £7.7m |
| Ownership | 45.8% |
| Form | 10.0 |
| EP (GW27) | 11.0 |
| Goals | 10 |
| Assists | 8 |
| xG | 8.78 |
| Starts | 22 |
| GW27 | BUR (H) — FDR 1 |
| GW28 | ARS (A) — FDR 5 |
João Pedro is the clear headline replacement and the numbers back the hype entirely. He has the highest EP of any player in GW27 at 11.0 — Chelsea at home to Burnley is FPL's lowest possible difficulty rating of 1.
His season profile is exceptional: 10G + 8A from 22 starts, 8.78 xG. Nearly a goal contribution per game, backed by genuine underlying quality not just luck. Form of 10.0 reflects back-to-back returns.
The caveat: GW28 is Arsenal away (FDR 5). Think of him as a 2-week cert with reassessment after. For GW27 specifically, he's the standout striker in the game.
View João Pedro's full profile
2. Ollie Watkins — Aston Villa, FWD | £8.6m
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £8.6m |
| Ownership | 9.0% |
| Form | 3.0 |
| EP (GW27) | 3.0 |
| Goals | 8 |
| xG | 9.47 |
| Starts | 22 |
| GW27 | LEE (H) — FDR 2 |
| GW28 | WOL (A) — FDR 2 |
Watkins is the most compelling case for the full 5-7 GW window. His xG of 9.47 is among the highest of any forward in the league — but he has only 8 goals. That gap screams positive regression incoming.
At just 9% ownership, GW27 and GW28 are back-to-back FDR 2 fixtures: Leeds at home, Wolves away. Villa's broader schedule through GW29-30 isn't easy, but if you believe in the xG model, a striker with 9.47 expected goals and 8 actual is almost mathematically overdue.
The risk: form of 3.0 is hard to trust short-term. But for managers thinking 5-7 weeks, Watkins is the highest-ceiling medium-term bet.
View Ollie Watkins' full profile
3. Hugo Ekitiké — Liverpool, FWD | £8.9m
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £8.9m |
| Ownership | 25.5% |
| Form | 4.5 |
| EP (GW27) | 5.0 |
| Goals | 10 |
| xG | 8.62 |
| Starts | 17 |
| GW27 | NFO (A) — FDR 3 |
| GW28 | WHU (H) — FDR 2 |
Ekitiké has 10 goals from just 17 starts — a 0.59 goals per 90 rate that puts him in elite company. His xG of 8.62 shows he's arriving in the right positions consistently, not just converting one-off chances.
At 25.5%, he's the most popular option after João Pedro. Liverpool's GW28 fixture (West Ham home, FDR 2) is excellent, and their schedule through GW29 (Wolves away, FDR 2) continues the positive run.
4. Viktor Gyökeres — Arsenal, FWD | £8.8m
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £8.8m |
| Ownership | 13.2% |
| Form | 4.2 |
| EP (GW27) | 5.2 |
| Goals | 8 |
| xG | 7.88 |
| Starts | 19 |
| GW27 | TOT (A) — FDR 3 |
| GW28 | CHE (H) — FDR 5 |
Gyökeres has settled well after his Arsenal move — 8 goals from 19 starts with 7.88 xG. His GW28 fixture (Chelsea home, FDR 5) is tough, but by GW30+ Arsenal's schedule improves and he becomes more appealing as a long-haul hold.
Better suited for managers who can absorb a 1-2 week low-ceiling stretch and are thinking beyond GW29.
Mid-Range Forwards (£6m-£8m)
5. Jørgen Strand Larsen — Crystal Palace, FWD | £6.1m
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £6.1m |
| Ownership | 1.8% |
| Form | 4.0 |
| EP (GW27) | 4.5 |
| Goals | 3 |
| xG | 3.76 |
| Starts | 16 |
| GW27 | WOL (H) — FDR 2 |
| GW28 | MUN (A) — FDR 4 |
| GW30 | LEE (H) — FDR 2 |
At 1.8% ownership, Strand Larsen is the value differential in the FWD bracket. Crystal Palace host Wolves in GW27 (FDR 2) and his underlying threat profile shows he's unlucky not to have more goals — 3.76 xG from 16 starts, but only 3 goals. The regression is coming.
Palace's GW27 and GW30 home fixtures (both FDR 2) make him a smart pick for the selective gameweek windows.
View Strand Larsen's full profile
6. Raúl — Fulham, FWD | £6.1m
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £6.1m |
| Ownership | 1.8% |
| Form | 3.5 |
| EP (GW27) | 3.5 |
| Goals | 6 |
| Assists | 5 |
| xG | 8.56 |
| Starts | 21 |
| GW27 | SUN (A) — FDR 4 |
| GW29 | WHU (H) — FDR 2 |
| GW30 | NFO (H) — FDR 2 |
| GW31 | BUR (H) — FDR 1 |
This is the most criminally underrated forward in FPL. Raúl's xG of 8.56 from 21 starts is elite — essentially matching Watkins at a fraction of the price. With 6 goals and 5 assists, he also creates for teammates, and his actual output doesn't reflect how central he is to Fulham's attack.
The GW27 fixture is poor (Sunderland away, FDR 4). But Fulham's GW29-31 schedule is potentially the best FDR run of any forward in the game: West Ham home (FDR 2), Forest home (FDR 2), Burnley home (FDR 1). That's an outstanding 3-game stretch.
If you're buying for the full window, Raúl from GW28-29 onward is one of the best picks in this article.
7. Evanilson — Bournemouth, FWD | £7.0m
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £7.0m |
| Ownership | 2.8% |
| Form | 3.0 |
| EP (GW27) | 3.0 |
| Goals | 5 |
| xG | 7.35 |
| Starts | 21 |
| GW27 | WHU (A) — FDR 2 |
| GW28 | SUN (H) — FDR 2 |
| GW30 | BUR (H) — FDR 2 |
Evanilson has quietly produced 7.35 xG this season but only 5 goals — a conversion problem that can't last forever. At just 2.8% ownership, any return he gets hands you enormous rank movement.
Bournemouth's fixture run is excellent for this window: back-to-back FDR 2s in GW27-28, then Burnley home (FDR 2) in GW30. The xG says the goals are coming — you just need to decide whether you trust the timing.
Budget Forwards (Under £6m)
8. Junior Kroupi — Bournemouth, FWD | £4.7m
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | £4.7m |
| Ownership | 7.2% |
| Form | 2.6 |
| EP (GW27) | 2.6 |
| Goals | 8 |
| xG | 4.37 |
| Starts | 11 |
| GW27 | WHU (A) — FDR 2 |
| GW28 | SUN (H) — FDR 2 |
Eight goals from 11 starts is a remarkable return rate — 0.73 goals per 90. Kroupi isn't a guaranteed starter and his minutes floor is lower than the other options here, but when Bournemouth need a goal, he's the one they look to.
At £4.7m he functions as a placeholder FWD slot — freeing Haaland funds to strengthen your MID or DEF. With the same Bournemouth FDR 2-2 run as Evanilson, he's the cheapest route into a quality fixture.
The Decision Table: Which Replacement Fits Your Team?
| Goal | Best Pick | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Maximum GW27 points | João Pedro (£7.7m) | EP 11.0, Chelsea vs Burnley FDR 1 |
| Full 5-7 GW hold | Watkins (£8.6m) | 9.47 xG, back-to-back FDR 2, regression due |
| Best value for window | Raúl (£6.1m) | 8.56 xG, Fulham GW29-31 is elite |
| Differential edge | Strand Larsen (£6.1m) | 1.8% owned, Palace GW27 FDR 2 |
| Budget placeholder | Kroupi (£4.7m) | 8 goals from 11 starts, Bournemouth FDR 2×2 |
Smart Money: What the Transfer Market Says
Net movement data from 17-18 February:
- João Pedro: +162,333 net — the dominant reactive pick from Haaland sellers
- Ekitiké: rising — Liverpool managers consolidating around him for GW28
- Strand Larsen + Raúl: quietly climbing — the differential play gaining traction
The market is correct on João Pedro for GW27. But almost no-one is touching Raúl (1.8% owned) despite his xG being elite — if Fulham click in GW29-31, he becomes one of the highest rank-moving picks in the game.
Final Verdict: Top 5 Striker Replacements Ranked
- 🥇 João Pedro (£7.7m) — Highest immediate ceiling, EP 11.0, Chelsea vs Burnley
- 🥈 Ollie Watkins (£8.6m) — Best 5-GW hold, 9.47 xG overdue, great schedule
- 🥉 Raúl (£6.1m) — Best underlying numbers for the price, Fulham GW29-31 is extraordinary
- 4th Ekitiké (£8.9m) — Proven scorer, Liverpool's GW28-29 run is kind
- 5th Kroupi (£4.7m) — Best budget option, 8 goals from 11 starts, Bournemouth fixtures ideal
Sell Haaland. Invest properly. Chase the xG, not the name.
Data Sources
- FPL API bootstrap-static + fixtures: prices, form, EP, xG, goals, ownership — snapshot 18 Feb 2026
- Man City official: Haaland not fully fit
- FPL net transfer data: snapshot 17-18 Feb 2026
All stats accurate as of 18 February 2026. Prices and statuses may change before the GW27 deadline: Friday 21 February 2026, 13:30 GMT.
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